英文面试准备
Artificial intelligence is a technology that sparks the human imagination. What will our future look like as we come to share the earth with intelligent machines? Our minds gravitate to extremes, to the sharply contrasting visions that have captured public attention and divided much of the technological community. As a longtime AI researcher and venture capitalist in China and the U.S., I’ve observed these two camps across continents and over many decades.
人工智能（Artificial Intelligence）总能激发人类无限的想象力，当AI大规模普及世界各地、和我们共享地球时，人类的前景会是什么模样？我们对这种未来场景的想象，很容易想得比较极端，这些极端情绪模糊了现实与未来，把知识界分化成两派看法：乌托邦派、反乌托邦派。我在中美两国长年都是AI研究人员和创投从业者，在长达35年的职业生涯中，第一手观察不同国家这两派阵营的看法。
Utopians believe that once AI far surpasses human intelligence, it will provide us with near-magical tools for alleviating suffering and realizing human potential. In this vision, super-intelligent AI systems will so deeply understand the universe that they will act as omnipotent oracles, answering humanity’s most vexing questions and conjuring brilliant solutions to problems such as disease and climate change.
乌托邦派认为，人工智能一旦发展到超越人类智慧，就能为我们提供近乎神人般的工具，可以减轻人类负担、帮助人类发挥潜能。这一派相信，超人工智能将能理解宇宙运作，简直就像上帝，全知全能，能够帮助人类文明解决一些不可能的问题，为全球变暖和绝症提供难以想象的聪明解方。
But not everyone is so optimistic. The best-known member of the dystopian camp is the technology entrepreneur Elon Musk, who has called super-intelligent AI systems “the biggest risk we face as a civilization,” comparing their creation to “summoning the demon.” This group warns that when humans create self-improving AI programs whose intellect dwarfs our own, we will lose the ability to understand or control them.
当然，不是所有人都那么乐观。反乌托邦派最知名人物之一伊隆‧马斯克（Elon Musk）就曾说过，超人工智能是「人类文明的最大风险」，并且把它比喻为「召唤恶魔」。这一派阵营提出警告，当人类创造出能够不断自我精进、超越人类智慧的AI，我们就会失去理解或控制权。
Which vision to accept? I’d say neither. They simply aren’t possible based on the technology we have today or any breakthroughs that might be around the corner. Both scenarios would require “artificial general intelligence”—that is, AI systems that can handle the incredible diversity of tasks done by the human brain. Making this jump would require several fundamental scientific breakthroughs, each of which may take many decades, if not centuries.
应该接受哪一派的看法？我认为两者皆不。按照现在的技术，或是任何近期可能发生的重大技术创新来推测，很多「想象中」的情境，包括永恒不朽的数字大脑，或是无所不能的超人工智能，全都不可能发生。因为这些都需要「通用人工智能」（Artificial General Intelligence, AGI）才能实现，也就是会思考、解决问题、做决策的机器，有能力执行人类能做的任何智识工作，以及更多超越人类能力的事。然而，要发展到通用人工智能，还需要一系列根本性的AI科学突破，但这种科学突破每一项都需要几十年、甚至上百年的时间才能出现。
The real battles that lie ahead will lack the apocalyptic drama of Hollywood blockbusters, but they will disrupt the structure of our economic and political systems all the same. Looming before us in the coming decades is an AI-driven crisis of jobs, inequality and meaning. The new technology will wipe out a huge portion of work as we’ve known it, dramatically widening the wealth gap and posing a challenge to the human dignity of us all.
我们眼前必须面对的挑战，并不是像好莱坞科幻大片那样毁天灭地的剧情，尽管AI对各国现存政经结构的破坏力量，确实足以招致毁灭性的后果。在未来数十年间，由AI引发的人类就业危机、不均问题和人类对人生意义的探索，是各国政府和每个人都必须严肃面对的课题。新科技普及将会消灭我们如今熟知的许多工作，也会严重加剧如今已经非常严重的不均问题，同时对每个人的人性尊严带来最深刻、最内省的挑战。
This unprecedented disruption requires no new scientific breakthroughs in AI, just the application of existing technology to new problems. It will hit many white-collar professionals just as hard as it hits blue-collar factory workers.
而且，这股前所未有的破坏力量，并不需要任何新的AI科学突破，只要将现有的深度学习等AI技术应用到新的问题上便蔚然成形。各位可别以为就业受到波及的，只有蓝领的工厂员工，传统认为「高学历=金饭碗」的看法也将遭到颠覆，白领被取代的风险一样大。
Despite these immense challenges, I remain hopeful. If handled with care and foresight, this AI crisis could present an opportunity for us to redirect our energy as a society to more human pursuits: to taking care of each other and our communities. To have any chance of forging that future, we must first understand the economic gauntlet that we are about to pass through.
前方的挑战十分巨大，但我仍然保持乐观。如果我们能够深谋远虑，对相关课题予以足够的关切、做好准备，AI造成的就业危机将是一次难得的机会，让我们的社会能够展现充沛的活力，追求人类怀抱的各种兴趣、期望与梦想，并对他人展现更多的关爱。为了落实这种更美好的未来，我们必须先了解接下来我们可能会面对的经济难题。
Many techno-optimists and historians would argue that productivity gains from new technology almost always produce benefits throughout the economy, creating more jobs and prosperity than before. But not all inventions are created equal. Some changes replace one kind of labor (the calculator), and some disrupt a whole industry (the cotton gin). Then there are technological changes on a grander scale. These don’t merely affect one task or one industry but drive changes across hundreds of them. In the past three centuries, we’ve only really seen three such inventions: the steam engine, electrification and information technology.
许多技术乐观主义者和史学家都认为，新科技发展带来的生产力提升，几乎总是对经济有利，能够创造出更多的就业机会，让人类社会比以前更加繁荣。但不是每一项发明都一样，有些发明改变了我们执行单一工作的方式（例如打字机），有些发明消除了对某种人力的需求（例如计算器），有些发明则是彻底颠覆了一整个产业（例如轧棉机）。此外，还有规模完全不同的技术变化，这些重大突破不只影响了单一工作或产业，可以延伸至从数十种产业，根本改变整个经济流程，甚至社会组织。在过去三个世纪以来，对人类社会影响如此巨大的「通用技术」（General PurposeTechnologies, GPTs）只有三种：蒸汽引擎、电力和信息通讯科技（information and communications technology, ICT）。
Looking at this smaller data set, we have a mixed bag of economic impacts. The steam engine and electrification created more jobs than they destroyed, in part by breaking down the work of one craftsman into simpler tasks done by dozens of factory workers. But information technology (and the associated automation of factories) is often cited by economists as a prime culprit in the loss of U.S. factory jobs and widening income inequality.
蒸汽引擎和电力创造出来的工作比消灭的多，主要是因为这两项通用技术「去技能化」（deskilling），把原先需要一个高技能工作者的工作（例如手工纺织），拆解成数十个低技能工作者能做的更简单工作（例如操作动力织布机）。但信息革命（ICT）与工厂自动化不同，通常被经济学家认为是造成美国工厂就业流失与贫富不均加剧的主因。
The AI revolution will be of the magnitude of the Industrial Revolution—but probably larger and definitely faster. Where the steam engine only took over physical labor, AI can perform both intellectual and physical labor. And where the Industrial Revolution took centuries to spread beyond Europe and the U.S., AI applications are already being adopted simultaneously all across the world.
AI革命的破坏和冲击，将比前两次工业革命更广大，发生的速度肯定也快许多。蒸汽引擎基本上改变了体力劳动的本质，ICT基本上改变了认知劳动的本质，而AI会同时改变两者，因为它可以执行多种不同的体能工作和智识工作，而且速度和效能远远胜过人类，大幅提升交通、制造到医疗等许多产业的效率。工业革命花了百年以上的时间横跨欧洲、美国到世界各地，AI应用基本上可以实时同步在世界各地展开。
AI’s main advantage over humans lies in its ability to detect incredibly subtle patterns within large quantities of data and to learn from them. While a human mortgage officer will look at only a few relatively crude measures when deciding whether to grant you a loan (your credit score, income and age), an AI algorithm will learn from thousands of lesser variables (what web browser you use, how often you buy groceries, etc.). Taken alone, the predictive power of each of these is minuscule, but added together, they yield a far more accurate prediction than the most discerning people are capable of.
与人类相比，AI最大的优势在于能从大量的数据中辨识非常细微的型态，并可从中学习。举例来说，银行的核贷专员可能只会看几项比较相关的「强特征」指针，也许是你的信用评分、所得级距、年龄等，来决定是否要放款给你，但AI算法会根据成千上万条看似不相关的「弱特征」变量，也许包括你使用什么浏览器、多久采买一次生活杂货等，来决定是否放款给你。如果把这些变量拆开来单独看，可能会令人完全想不到有这些特质跟还款能力什么关系，但是加总起来，AI算法据以评估、预测出来的贷款违约率，比起行内最谨慎、高竿的专业核贷人员都精准许多。
For cognitive tasks, this ability to learn means that computers are no longer limited to simply carrying out a rote set of instructions written by humans. Instead, they can continuously learn from new data and perform better than their human programmers. For physical tasks, robots are no longer limited to repeating one set of actions (automation) but instead can chart new paths based on the visual and sensor data they take in (autonomy).
在认知任务的表现上，AI自我学习的能力表示计算机不再局限于只能听从、执行人类编写的程序，而是能从不断累积的新数据中持续学习、精进，表现甚至比人类码农更出彩、惊人许多。在体力劳动的任务上，机器人不再局限于只能反复执行单一动作（自动化），而是能够根据机器视觉和感测数据规划出新的路径，并且安稳地在各种不同环境中运作（自主化）。
Together, this allows AI to take over countless tasks across society: driving a car, diagnosing a disease or providing customer support. AI’s superhuman performance of these tasks will lead to massive increases in productivity. According to a June 2017 study by the consulting firm PwC, AI’s advance will generate $15.7 trillion in additional wealth for the world by 2030. This is great news for those with access to large amounts of capital and data. It’s very bad news for anyone who earns their living doing soon-to-be-replaced jobs.
结合这些新的能力，AI如今可以完成人类社会中的许多任务，包括开车、诊断疾病、提供客服等。AI执行这些任务的超能力，将导致生产力大幅提升。
普华永道（PricewaterhouseCoopers）估计，到了2030年，AI的应用部署将为全球GDP增加15.7万亿美元。这对拥有大量数据和资本的人来说，无疑是个好消息；但对每日辛勤工作只为温饱，而且工作极可能有被取代的人来说，则是非常令人忧心的坏消息。
There are, however, limits to the abilities of today’s AI, and those limits hint at a hopeful path forward. While AI is great at optimizing for a highly narrow objective, it is unable to choose its own goals or to think creatively. And while AI is superhuman in the coldblooded world of numbers and data, it lacks social skills or empathy—the ability to make another person feel understood and cared for. Analogously, in the world of robotics, AI is able to handle many crude tasks like stocking goods or driving cars, but it lacks the delicate dexterity needed to care for an elderly person or infant.
不过，AI现在的能力仍然有限，而这些局限正好是人类希望的所在，可以为人类的未来指出一条明路。虽然AI能在相对狭窄的领域将结果优化，但仍然无法自行选定目标，或是发挥创意思考。
虽然AI在由0和1组成的冰冷世界里拥有超能力，但仍然缺乏社交能力和同理心，无法使人觉得受到关怀、被照顾。在机器人的世界，AI虽然能够轻松搬运重货、开车，但仍然完全无法胜任照顾年长者或婴童这类需要灵巧性与敏捷度的工作。
What does that mean for workers who fear being replaced? Jobs that are asocial and repetitive, such as fast-food preparers or insurance adjusters, are likely to be taken over in their entirety. For jobs that are repetitive but social, such as bartenders and doctors, many of the core tasks will be done by AI, but there remains an interactive component that people will continue to perform. The jobs that will be safe, at least for now, are those well beyond the reach of AI’s capabilities in terms of creativity, strategy and sociability, from social workers to CEOs.
这对担心工作遭到取代的人来说，有何涵义？社交程度低、重复性高的工作，例如连锁快餐店的备餐员或保险理算人，有可能完全被AI取代。重复性高、社交程度高的工作，例如调酒师、医师，虽然有许多核心任务将被AI取代，但仍旧扮演和人互动的重要角色。
那么，究竟什么工作比较安全、不会被AI取代（至少就目前而言）？我认为是那些需要发挥创造力、策略、社交程度高的工作，因为这些都超越AI现有的能力，包括从社工到CEO等等职业。
Even where AI doesn’t destroy jobs outright, however, it will exacerbate inequality. AI is inherently monopolistic: A company with more data and better algorithms will gain ever more users and data. This self-reinforcing cycle will lead to winner-take-all markets, with one company making massive profits while its rivals languish.
即使在AI难以取代人类工作的领域，也会严重加剧不均问题。AI本质上自然倾向形成垄断，一间公司如果拥有更多数据、更好的算法，由于大量数据有助于做出改善，更好的产品会吸引到更多用户，更多用户会产生更多数据，更多数据又会产生更好的产品，然后又会产生更多用户和数据，这会形成一个自我永续的良性循环，发展出赢家通吃的市场。结果就是，单一公司囊括了巨额利益，竞争对手被远远抛在身后，惨淡经营，苦撑下去。
A similar consolidation will occur across professions. The jobs that will remain relatively insulated from AI fall on opposite ends of the income spectrum. CEOs, home care nurses, attorneys and hairstylists are all in “safe” professions, but the people in some of these professions will be swimming in the riches of the AI revolution while others compete against a vast pool of desperate fellow workers.
这种两极化的不均情形，也发生在各个职业的收入上。比较不受到AI影响的工作，收入会非常两极分化，像CEO、居家看护、律师、发型师都属于相对「安全」的工作，有些人明显会因为AI革命而迅速累积更多财富，其他人则要辛苦地跟一大票同业竞争低薪工作。
We can’t know the precise shape and speed of AI’s impact on jobs, but the broader picture is clear. This will not be the normal churn of capitalism’s creative destruction, a process that inevitably arrives at a new equilibrium of more jobs, higher wages and better quality of life for all. Many of the free market’s self-correcting mechanisms will break down in an AI economy. The 21st century may bring a new caste system, split into a plutocratic AI elite and the powerless struggling masses.
AI革命对人类就业的规模和实际影响目前犹未可知，但大致的前景是确定的。这不会是一波新的创造性破坏，像以前一样，引领出一波新的均衡，创造出更多就业、更高薪资，让所有人的生活质量变得更好。
由于AI发展，人类在21世纪可能创造出新的种姓制度，分化出两种截然不同的阶级：高高在上、因为AI革命而获利丰厚的超级富豪，以及对自身处境毫无能力改变的亿万黎民。
Recent history has shown us just how fragile our political institutions and social fabric can be in the face of disruptive change. If we allow AI economics to run their natural course, the geopolitical tumult of recent years will look like child’s play.
近代史告诉我们，在严重不均的情况之下，我们的政治体制和社会结构有多么脆弱。如果我们容许AI经济自由发展，我担心，历史上的动乱相较于AI时代的破坏力量，也不过是场小演习而已。
On a personal and psychological level, the wounds could be even deeper. Society has trained most of us to tie our personal worth to the pursuit of work and success. In the coming years, people will watch algorithms and robots easily outmaneuver them at tasks they’ve spent a lifetime mastering. I fear that this will lead to a crushing feeling of futility and obsolescence. At worst, it will lead people to question their own worth and what it means to be human.
甚至，在个人和心理层面，AI革命造成的创伤也会更深刻。社会训练我们将个人价值和工作与成就紧密结合在一起，在接下来的数年间，当人们陆续看到算法和机器人那么简单就能把工作做得又快又好，但自己可是花了一辈子的时间才学会这些赚钱技能，那会是什么样的感觉？我想，可能会觉得自己非常没用，感觉被时代淘汰吧！最糟的是，这可能会导致人们怀疑自我价值，纳闷活着到底有什么意思？
So what can be done?
针对这种隐忧，我们能做什么？
This grim vision is shared by many technologists in Silicon Valley, and it has sent them casting about for solutions. As the architects and profiteers of the AI age, they feel a mix of genuine social responsibility and fear of being targeted when the pitchforks come out. In their rush for a quick fix, many of the techno-elite have seized on the idea of a universal basic income: an unconditional, government-provided cash stipend to allow every citizen to meet their basic needs.
硅谷很多科技专家早就预见这种未来情景，并且设想可能的解方。这些一手打造出AI时代，并且从中收割巨大利益的科技精英们，感觉自己有必要「做点什么」来改善可能的劣况。这一部分是出于社会责任，一部分是害怕当社会真的变得动荡不安时，自己可能会成为众矢之的。
I can see the appeal. UBI is exactly what Silicon Valley entrepreneurs love: an elegant technical solution to tangled social problems. UBI can be the magic wand that lets them wish away the messy complexities of human psychology and get back to building the technologies that “make the world a better place,” while making them rich. It’s an approach that maps well onto how they tend to view society: as a collection of “users” rather than as citizens, customers and human beings.
这些硅谷精英提出的许多技术性解方，大多偏向迅速修正，其中有一项最受热议的提案是「全民基本收入」（Universal Basic Income, UBI），核心概念很简单：每个国民（或成年人）定期领取政府发放的津贴，以支应日常的基本需求，不用任何附带条件。
我了解硅谷精英为何如此醉心于这个点子，因为这是一种简单、优雅的技术解决方案，或许有助于应付他们创造出来的庞大、复杂社会问题。或许，UBI会是一支神奇的「魔杖」，简单挥个几下，就能消除他们在AI时代创造出来的种种经济、社会与心理冲击，他们也能够安心地继续发展各种最新科技，「让世界成为一个更美好的地方」，同时大量累积财富。这种技术性解方符合他们看待社会的方式：把整个社会看成一大群「用户」、不是「公民」，是一大群「顾客」、不是「个人」。
We can do better. Some form of guaranteed income may indeed be necessary, but if we allow such support to be the endgame, we will miss the opportunity presented by this transformative technology. Instead of simply falling back on an economic painkiller like a universal basic income, we should use the economic bounty generated by AI to double down on what separates us from machines: human empathy and love.
但我们能做到的，当然更好。某种形式的基本保障收入有必要，但如果我们错把手段当成目的，也会错失这项科技带来的转型良机。
我们不该让UBI沦为一剂止痛药，用来麻痹被AI相关技术伤害的人们，而是应该善用AI创造出来的经济红利，加倍下注于人类和机器不同的地方，那就是人类的同理心与爱人的能力。
Such a revolution in how we relate to work will require a rethink from all corners of society. In the private sector, instead of simply viewing AI as a means for cost-cutting through automation, businesses can create new jobs by seeking out symbiosis between AI optimizations and the human touch. This will be especially powerful in areas such as health care and education, where AI can produce crucial insights but only humans can deliver them with care and compassion.
要如何重新定义自我价值与工作的关系，这件事着实不易，需要社会整体努力。科技公司引领AI革命，所以我认为，科技公司也应该主导创造更人性化的新就业机会。其中，有些机会会自然运作而生，有些则必须靠人为创造，要花费一番努力。
Beyond the private sector, governments across the world need to start thinking now about how to use the riches generated by AI to rewrite the social contract and reorient our economies to promoting human flourishing.
企业不应只是把AI当成节省成本的利器，应该设法推动结合人类与机器能力的共生机制，创造一些可让人类与AI安然共存的新工作机会，尤其是保健照护和教育等领域的工作。在这些领域，AI可以通过海量数据产生最优化的结果，人类则扮演表达关怀与同理心的重要角色。
面对眼前前所未有的挑战，各国政府当然也需要开始思考，如何运用AI创造出来的财富改写社会契约，引领经济做好必要转型，以促进人类在未来的繁荣发展。
At the center of this vision, I would suggest, there needs to be what I call the Social Investment Stipend, a respectable government salary for those who devote their time to three categories of activities: care work, community service and education. These activities would form the pillars of a new social contract, rewarding socially beneficial activities just as we now reward economically productive activities. The idea is simple: to inject more ambition, pride and dignity into work focused on enhancing our communities.
为了达到这样的愿景，我提议的是「社会贡献薪资」（social investment stipend）这样的方案。这些薪资由政府支付，凡是投资时间和精力在让社会变得更仁慈、和善、更有创意的活动的人，政府就会支付一笔还算不错的报酬。
这些活动主要可以分成三大类：照护工作、小区服务和教育，它们将形成一种新社会契约的支柱，就像我们现在奖酬高经济生产力的活动，这些活动重视、奖酬的是高度对社会有益的活动。背后的核心概念很简单：为专注于改善社群的工作，注入更多抱负、自尊和尊严。
Care work could include parenting or home schooling of young children, assisting aging parents or helping a friend with mental or physical disabilities live life to the full. Service work would focus on much of the current work of nonprofit and volunteer groups: leading after-school programs, guiding tours at parks or collecting oral histories from elders in our communities. Supported education activities could range from professional training for the jobs of the AI age to taking classes that turn a hobby into a career.
照护工作可能包括：在家里养育年幼的孩子、照料年迈父母、帮助照顾生病的亲友，或是帮助提升身心障碍者的生活质量等。服务工作的定义很广泛，涵盖了现在很多非营利组织的工作，还有我在台湾看到的那些志工所从事的活动，包括环境修复、课后辅导、公园导游、整理小区老人的口述史等。在教育这个工作类别，涵盖了从AI时代的专业工作训练，到把爱好变成职业的训练课程。
The participation requirements of the stipend wouldn’t be designed to dictate the lives of citizens. There would be a wide enough range of choices for all workers who have been displaced by AI. The more people-oriented could opt for care work, the ambitious could enroll in high-tech training, and others could take up community-service work.
我要特别强调一点，规定领取社会贡献薪资的人从事这些活动，并不是要强制他们的日常活动。人类的美在于多元性，每个人都有不同的背景、技能、兴趣和个人特质，我不是主张要用一些狭窄的社会活动，靠着指挥控制制度来扼杀这种多元性。而且我相信，会有足够广泛的选择，可以让所有被AI取代的人找到合适的工作。喜欢和人亲近的人，可以选择照护工作；比较有抱负一点的人，就可以去上高科技职训课程；受到社会理想激励的人，就可以选择小区服务或倡议类的工作。
By requiring some social contribution to receive the stipend, we would foster a public philosophy far different from the laissez-faire individualism of universal basic income. Providing a stipend in exchange for participation in community-building activities carries a clear message: Collective effort from people across society allowed us to reach this point of economic abundance, and now we must use that abundance to recommit ourselves to one another and to our humanity.
之所以必须对社会做出贡献才能领取薪资，是为了培养与UBI自由放任个人主义明显不同的意识形态。参与社会活动可以领取薪资，强化了一个明确的信息：我们之所以能够达到目前这样的经济富裕，靠的是社会上无数人的努力；现在，我们共同利用这些富裕，对彼此做出贡献，加强人际之间的关爱和连结，这些都是我们身为人类的特别之处。
Many difficult questions remain to be answered, of course, before we could consider implementing such a sweeping and idealistic policy. The urgency to create, and the ability to pay for, a far-reaching Social Investment Stipend will depend on the pace and nature of AI’s economic impact. But the humanistic values it embodies can serve as a guide while we navigate the treacherous waters that lie ahead. We may yet be able to harness the full potential of both machines that think and humans who love.
要实施这种社会方案，当然会引发一连串的问题与摩擦，很多问题有待解答，而且要等到AI大量普及后，才可能会知道答案。我们究竟会多快实践「社会贡献薪资」、有多少能力给付、能够推广得多深入，都要看AI革命对各国经济造成冲击的速度和程度。
不过，它背后隐藏的人性价值，是我们在惶惶穿越前方深不可测的漆黑水域时的一盏明灯。如果提前做好准备、善用各种应对方案，或许我们可以结合机器思考和人类爱人的双重能力，真正发挥出最大潜能。